Bitcoin Longs At Bitfinex Reach Two-Year High: Bullish, Or Bearish

The key takeaways

• Bitfinex Bitcoin’s margin longs reached a two-year peak, but arbitrage shows that it is not just a bullish price signal.

• Bitcoin prices drop as gold and tech stocks gain in value, driving investors to a cautious risk-averse attitude.

BitcoinBTCOn Thursday the price plunged to its lowest point in more than two months, testing $84,000 as a support. The sell-off coincided with the broader trend of risk avoidance after Microsoft’s (MSFT US ) shares plunged by 11% in response to reports about increased capital expenditures, and disappointing quarter cloud server revenues.

​Investors examine why bullish margin demand surged at a 2-year high, despite the 26% decline in price over the past ninety days. Some traders fear that the use of excessive leverage may lead to more forced liquidations. This is especially true after BTC Futures Positions worth $360 Million were destroyed on Thursday.

Bitfinex’s demand for margin-long positions reached a record high since November 20, 2023. This totaled 83,933 BTC. The nominal position of $7.3 billion is large, but the annual borrowing costs are still below 0.01% because Bitfinex demands collateral deposits exceeding the loan value. To avoid futures, many traders prefer margin to them. “carry cost,” BTC Futures currently average around 5% annually.

The longer settlement period is the reason for this premium. Bullish periods typically push this indicator over the neutral 10% threshold. The last time this happened was in early February of 2025 when Bitcoins traded at around $103,500.

Arbitrage in the rise of Bitfinex Bitcoin futures is neutral.

Many professional traders use “cash and carryThe strategies are designed to take advantage of the difference in rate between the margin market and the futures market. As a result, Bitfinex’s rising longs are likely to have a neutral impact, since the arbitrage is based on selling BTC contracts at the same time. The spike in the margin activities should not only be seen as an indication of price increases.

​The lack of trust among Bitcoin investors can partly be attributed to concerns about the overvaluation of artificial intelligence. Sundar Pichai is the CEO of Google. He said that there was a lack of confidence among Bitcoin traders. “elements of irrationality” AI is growing at an exponential rate, and this has a high energy demand. According These valuations, according to BBC analysts, have caused many to be skeptical.

Microsoft stock fell after reporting $625 Billion in revenue, a value of $3.5 Trillion. “remaining performance obligations,” Unpaid contracts Fortune noted Nearly $280 billion is linked with OpenAI. Microsoft is both the primary investor in the company and its cloud provider. This raises eyebrows.

Bitcoin dropped on Thursday, coinciding with gold prices crashing The metal lost 8% within 30 minutes. However, it recovered about half of those losses. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas reported that on Thursday the SPDR gold shares ETF (GLD US), saw trading volumes exceeding $25 billion, a new record.

Related: Bitcoin vs. gold: Key differences that could position BTC for a big rally

Gold and silver have a combined market capitalization of $43.4 trillion. Concerns about a possible “debasement trade.” It is clear that investors seek refuge in limited assets, even if fixed-income returns remain at or above 3.5%. While Bitfinex longs on margin are higher, data from the blockchain and derivatives do not show a bullish trend.