Bitcoin was hovering around the $100,000 mark on Thursday, October 23. Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick said that a drop below $100,000 this weekend would be a serious concern. “seems inevitable”—while adding that any break could be fleeting the last last time bitcoin is ever below six figures. In a note to clients sent out midweek, the remarks made by Mr. shared The Block frames a tactic pullback within a macro bull thesis that the bank has been promoting for months.
Bitcoin to Drop Below $100,000 for the First Time Ahead
Kendrick’s message is a combination of caution and conviction for the longer term. Standard Chartered also reiterated a similar message in the same cycle of research. target of $200,000 by year-end—hinging on ETF demand, corporate treasury uptake, and a friendlier policy backdrop—the strategist has now flagged an air-pocket toward sub-$100,000 as the market digests October’s sell-off and a tepid bounce. “A decline below $100,000 now appears ‘inevitable,'” Kendrick stressed on Wednesday that any decline in the market should only be temporary and unlikely to last long. “last-ever chance to buy BTC for less than six figures.”
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The recalibration follows an early-October swing that saw bitcoin fail to hold above its recent local high—Kendrick cited the Oct. 10 risk-off break and the absence of a strong reflex rally—shifting the bank’s focus to where the market bottoms rather than whether it immediately resumes trend.
Kendrick’s latest note outlines a few signs for the base-building stage, such as monitoring the capital flow between bitcoin and gold, and the trend of US dollar liquidity. Kendrick also noted that Bitcoin has maintained its 50-week average moving since the beginning of 2023. He views this level as an important long-term line.
Standard Chartered’s cycle map is not thrown off course by the near-term crosscurrents. Even as recent as July 2, Standard Chartered told its clients that they expected the dollar to reach the highest level ever in 2025. Bitcoin would be at $200,000 on December 31, according to the bank. That framing—ETF inflows, corporate balance-sheet adoption, and regulatory normalization as the dominant drivers—remains the core of Kendrick’s upside case, even as he concedes that a brief trip under $100,000 is now probable. “The decline could mark the last time to ever buy BTC for six figures,” Recent dispatches have highlighted.
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The market context aligns with the cautious near-term tones. In the past two-weeks, bitcoin’s price has fallen by about ten percent. The spot market is currently trading at around $108,000. As liquidity continues to decline into the weekend as well, macro-sensitivity towards policy headlines will remain elevated.
The key question is whether Kendrick’s confirmation signals begin to appear. Validation of the trend would be a significant improvement in dollar liquidity, evidence that bitcoin is being rotated back to gold at the expense, and the preservation of the higher timeframe trends. “last time below $100,000” claim.
A deeper retracement is not ruled out if those conditions aren’t met, but it would be more of a departure from Standard Chartered’s roadmap than the base case. For now, Standard Chartered’s message is unambiguous: brace for a dip under six figures, but treat it—quoting Kendrick directly—as “the last-ever chance to buy BTC for less than six figures,” If the catalysts for medium-term change.
BTC was trading at $109 953.
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
