Bitcoin Will Drop Below $100K If Trump does not TACO

Takeaways from the conference: 

• Bitcoin is under pressure due to deteriorating US-China relationships, President Donald Trump’s recent increase in tariffs and traders who avoid long leverage. 

• Analysts are optimistic that the next macroeconomic event will reverse this downward trend.  

Bitcoins’ (BTCThe market is trying to rebalance itself after the sharp correction of last week, but the increasing headwinds caused by Trump’s renewed trade war with China as well as the US shutdown for the longest time in history are keeping bullish traders from taking new positions. 

The Coinbase Premium Index, spot cumulative volume (the difference between the market buys and sellers) and Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows for retail and professional investors on Coinbase are all steadily increasing since Bitcoin traded at $107,000 in October. 

In the graph below you can see how volume deltas, funding dynamics, and the open interest dynamics have developed since the sell-off on October 10. US institutional and retail investors have accumulated BTC in large quantities, whereas Binance traders of perpetual futures (red line), who are aggressive sellers, also have. 

The spot delta on Binance is higher than the futures volume (third panel) and the perps delta is lower. This confirms the idea that the perps driven selling reinforces the downward trend, while the demand from spot buyers at $107,000-$108,000 is strong. 

This expression can be viewed in a different way. 

In light of Bitcoin’s possible price movements in the near-term, liquidation heatmaps (Binance by Bybit and BitMEX) suggest that momentum traders could chase liquidation clusters on long positions between $106,300 – $104,000 while short positions may be at risk at $115,000. 

Quinn Thompson is the Chief Investment officer at Lekker Capital. He believes that while prices may remain volatile for a short time, they will eventually stabilize. said: 

“10/10 liquidation cleared more leverage in $ and % of OI than the entire Jan-Apr ‘25 period. Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory ‘24.”  

Following in the same vein, macroeconomics-focused account Tom Capital reminded Traders “just trade the price action” As the upcoming week will be full of exciting events. 

In the coming weeks, you will likely be required to follow these narratives.
US CPI released
Reopening of the US Government is possible
– Fed rate cut (future cuts)
– Nikkei topping at 50,000
Gold top
– No TACO, or TACO? (Trump imposed tariffs of 100% on China etc.).

Or you could…

— Tom Capital (@Tom__Capital) October 21, 2025

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.