Bitcoins will drop under $100K If Trump does not TACO

Takeaways from the conference: 

• Bitcoin is under pressure due to deteriorating US-China relationships, the recent tariff increase by President Trump, and traders who avoid long leverage. 

• Bitcoin may drop to below $100,000 but analysts hope that macroeconomic events next week will reverse the downward trend.  

Bitcoins’ (BTCMarket structure is aimed at restoring balance after last week’s abrupt correction. However, the intensifying pressures of President Donald Trump’s new tariff war against China as well as the unprecedented length of the US Government shutdown are preventing bullish investors from opening up positions on futures markets. 

Since Bitcoin reached $107,000 on the Coinbase exchange, Oct. 10, the Coinbase Premium Index (the difference in the net volume of market purchases and sales) and spot cumulative volume delta for both professional and retail investors have steadily been trending up. 

In the graph below you can see how volume deltas, funding dynamics, and the open interest dynamics have developed since the sell-off on October 10. US institutional and retail investors have clearly accumulated BTC. Binance’s perpetual futures (red line), however, has been selling aggressively. 

When comparing Binance’s spot volumes with its futures (third chart), the delta for the spot is positive. However, the delta for the perps is negative, which highlights the rise in short positions. These results confirm the idea that perps is driving the selling, reinforcing a downward trend. Meanwhile, the demand of spot buyers is sustaining the $107,000 to $108,000. 

Below is an alternate expression. 

The liquidation heatmap (Binance Bybit BitMEX), based on the potential short-term price movement of Bitcoin, suggests that traders may chase clusters in liquidation for long positions between $106,300 and $104,000, while short positions could be closed at $115,000. 

Quinn Thompson is the chief investment officer of Lekker Capital. He believes that while prices may remain rocky for a short time, they will eventually stabilize. said This is the: 

“10/10 liquidation cleared more leverage in $ and % of OI than the entire Jan-Apr ‘25 period. Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory ‘24.”  

Following in the same vein, macroeconomics-focused account ‘Tom Capital’ reminded Tradesmen “just trade the price action” The next few days are expected to be filled with actionable events. 

In the next few days, you will likely be required to follow these narratives.
US CPI released
Possible US Government Reopening
– Fed rate cut (future cuts)
– Nikkei topping at 50,000
– Golden topping
– No TACO, or TACO? (Trump’s 100% self-imposed tariffs against China etc.

Or you could…

— Tom Capital (@Tom__Capital) October 21, 2025

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.