After Bitcoin’s (BTC). brutal sale on October 9 that saw it flash crash from $102,000 to just under $100,000 before recovering its most recent losses, the on-chain signal now shows a notable decline in Bitcoin network usage throughout 2025.
Bitcoin’s On-Chain Basics: Losing strength?
TeddyVision’s CryptoQant Quicktake article states that Bitcoin Network Activity Index (NAI) has consistently been below the 365-day MA for much of 2025. This shows that the Bitcoin on-chain network is experiencing a gradual slowdown.
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For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin Network Activity Index measures how actively users are interacting on-chain – tracking metrics like transaction counts, active addresses, and transfer volumes. An index that is rising indicates organic adoption and usage, whereas a falling one shows a slowing of network engagement.
Remember that the Bitcoin network activity soared before its price in 2023-24. Bitcoin’s price grew organically at that time, driven primarily by on-chain usage.
In 2025, however, this trend is very different. This year, Bitcoin liquidity has been circulating primarily off-chain while traffic on-chain is decreasing. In response, the Network Activity Index fell below the 365 day MA.
BTC’s price, however, has remained between $100,000 and $120,000. As a result, the value of digital assets is far from matching network fundamentals. CryptoQuant analyst commented:
Capital keeps rotating, but not expanding – most flows happen off-chain, through ETFs, custodians, and synthetic exposure, while genuine on-chain demand remains subdued.
TeddyVision said that recent capital movements in the Bitcoin markets are not an indication of their strength but is rather just a coincidence. “momentum running on fumes.” Analysts added that when Bitcoin usage is stagnant while prices continue to rise, the valuations cease reflecting adoption and begin tracking assumptions.
Bitcoin may not be in collapse yet but the decline of its network activity is a clear indication that its fundamentals have fallen. It is possible that BTC will not collapse anytime soon.
Titan of Crypto, a crypto analyst from the UK, noted in an X-post that Bitcoin’s bull market was not yet over. According to the analyst, a Bitcoin bull market won’t begin until it drops below the Simple Moving Average 50 (SMA), which is shown on the weekly graph.
Q4 2025 Bullish For BTC?
The recent BTC flash crash at $102,000 has spooked some BTC bulls. However, many industry experts remain confident in the future of the digital currency. continue In the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect to see new records.
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Crypto market expert Ash Crypto was recently interviewed predicted BTC could reach $180,000 by Q4 2025. Binance has also released new data. suggests BTC may be heading for $130,000.
Egrag is a crypto analyst who has recently been quoted as saying that the two are similar. forecasted BTC is only in need of a small catalyst for it to reach $175,000. BTC is currently trading at $114.076, an increase of 0.8% over the last 24 hours.
Charts are from TradingView.com and CryptoQuant.
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
