Real Vision analyst warns that the Bitcoin cycle will change everything

Jamie Coutts, Real Vision’s analyst, argues that bitcoin is currently being driven by global liquidity which is just now starting to grow. In an interview that covered a broad range of topics, “Crypto Kid,” Coutts outlined a cycle structure anchored on policy, banking credit and balance sheet dynamics. He also cautioned that traditional momentum warnings, as well as a cooling in corporate-treasury purchasing, warrant respect.

The Bitcoin cycle is different

“From a first-principles basis, global liquidity…drives risk assets,” Coutts said, adding that when he regresses bitcoin against his preferred liquidity composite—built from central-bank balance sheets, global money supply, FX reserves and elements of commercial/shadow banking—”you find that there’s explanatory power.” He warned that the danger is to overfit a relationship in motion. “Markets are non-stationary… The correlation itself is a moving target, so I wouldn’t get too tied up in charts where you’re fine-tuning the lag. That lag period will change all the time.” He called it the link between risk and liquidity “as good as anything I’ve ever seen.”

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In the interview, we began by addressing a recent point of disagreement: Short-term differences between global liquidity measures and bitcoin’s price. US spot ETFs launched. Coutts denied that there was any linkage. “broken,” The current difference is not significant when compared to the volatility of bitcoin. “Within the volatility scope of the asset, [there’s] nothing to worry about,” He said while noting his own dollar sensitive proxy had “been flatlining for a little bit longer” Some popular versions are more accurate than others. The right question, he stressed, is not micromanaging a lag but asking whether liquidity is rising on a multi-quarter view—and why.

The macro perspective leads directly into policy. Coutts predicts an impending inflection of Western central banks’ posture. Rates are expected to fall and the balance sheet will be tightened, if not tapered. “I think it’s very likely we’ll see interest-rate cuts in the September meeting,” He said.

Question: When will the Fed make an announcement? end of QT Or further tapering the QT?” According to him, the pivot is behind his viewpoint. “fiscal dominance”The US Treasury’s large deficits, and the need to refinance them, force monetary authorities into ensuring a smooth intake of Treasury supplies. “You can forget what they tell you about stable prices and unemployment. They are there to hold up the financial system… and now they are very much tied to the hip of the US government.”

Coutts stressed to viewers the importance of commercial banks lending credit, not central banks. “They’re responsible for around 85% to 90% of all the new money supply,” He added. He said that in reality, liquid assets can often be problematic. “supercharged” Central banks can also alter their regulations or expand their own balance sheet to motivate banks to acquire more Treasuries. In this light, he also described Washington’s more favourable attitude towards crypto and stablecoins. He called dollar stablecoins an alternative distribution channel for US debt. His view is that this structural backdrop favors greater liquidity, even if near-term movements are unclear.

The Business Cycle

Coutts has layered his policy on top the business cycle. He argued that the US is edging back into expansion—with recent ISM readings above 50 cited during the discussion—and that the “Goldilocks” When a rise in growth coincides with increased liquidity, a setup is created. He suggested that this is what drives the four-year Bitcoin rhythm. “Are we really looking at a liquidity cycle that’s dressed up as a bitcoin halving cycle?” According to him, as the issuance of coins and bills decreases in successive half-divisions, there is a supply-shock. “less significant,” While liquidity and growth are the main factors influencing allocations, “anti-debasement assets.” “It was an exciting race,” he said. “Bitcoin is the emergent anti-debasement asset of the present and the future,” Ethereum’s long-term performance can be measured by comparing it to its own.

Coutts’ map features China prominently. Coutts highlighted China’s growing balance sheet, amid deflationary pressures on property and government efforts to revive risky assets. “They’re really the only central bank that’s going up,” He said that he attributed the increased liquidity in Chinese terms to rising gold and improving Chinese equity markets. In previous cycles he said, bitcoin’s late stage strength correlated to Chinese equity peaks. He now sees “an inverse double head-and-shoulders” Pattern pointing at roughly 5,100 for a major China equity benchmark. It is not possible to have two cycles. “statistically significant,” He conceded but the mechanism was straightforward “What’s driving Chinese equities, what’s driving bitcoin? The same thing—it’s liquidity.”

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The tape will still demand humility, even if the message structure is positive. Coutts identified a downward divergence of bitcoin’s weekly momentum in the form of a risky signal. “Divergences are warning signals… The trend is losing momentum,” ‘It was the same set-up that preceded the 2008 global financial crisis, and it will be the same for the pandemic of 2020. He said that such signals were probabilistic and not a sign of fate. However, he encouraged investors to take them into consideration. “countervailing circumstances” Risk-management overlays should not be dismissed.

Why this Bitcoin cycle is DIFFERENT? Explained by @Jamie1Coutts)

Timestamps:
Intro: 00:00
01:05 M2 money supply and global liquidity
7:19 Fed Balance Sheet
15:45 Cycles of liquidity or halving
Chinese Equities and Bitcoin
Bearish Divergences
35:08… pic.twitter.com/VIuA5BFTyu

— Crypto Kid (@CryptoKidcom) September 6, 2025

Bitcoin Momentum Fades (For Now)

In relation to the momentum, he pointed out a cooling of the marginal demand motor that powered most of 2024. corporate-treasury accumulation MicroStrategy is the leader in bitcoin and is followed by many imitators. “The marginal buyer of bitcoin has been treasury companies and ETFs,” he said that, but “intensity of buying” By Treasury Vehicles “peaked in Q4 of 2024.” Premiums are compressing and the capital markets’ windows are narrowing. “they can’t buy at the same intensity anymore,” Which acts as a drag in the margin.

The host noted that MicroStrategy’s market-to-NAV premium had recently been around 1.5%, adding that Michael Saylor has suggested issuance is far more attractive above roughly 2.0; Coutts’ broader point was that a proliferation of copycats diluted the strategy and left many smaller names trading below intrinsic value—potential acquisition fodder for stronger operators if discounts persist. He said that ETFs are more stable but do not have the same reflexivity as equity issues.

The “altseasonCoutts stated bluntly, “This time won’t rhyme with the helicopter-money madness of 2021.” Coutts argued crypto had now reached product-market-fit, as higher-quality networks have users, cash flow and token-burn mechanisms that are logical to traditional investors, whereas indiscriminate speculating fades.

“The new buyers are much more discerning. They’re not going to buy the 15th or 16th L1, the 10th L2,” he predicted concentration on a small number of platforms that are credible and have real-world application. He hopes that the industry will “never say the word ‘altseason’ again,” Preferring to describe the future as a broad “asset-class bull market” With a much larger dispersion. Prior to the prior “banana zone,” He added that he was a creature who lived by lockdowns, stimulus checks and other measures. “velocity of stimulus is different” Expectations should also be high.

BTC was trading at $112 946 as of the time this article went to press.

Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com