JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is ‘Undervalued’—But By How Much?

JPMorgan is refueling the debate on digital assets. In a recent research note, they argue that Bitcoin screens now. “too cheap” As gold’s volatility falls to a historic low, it is viewed as a better alternative.

Bitcoin: How undervalued is it?

The bank’s cross-asset team says six-month BTC volatility has fallen from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to roughly 30%—a series low—and that Bitcoin is now only about twice as volatile as gold, the narrowest gap on record. On the bank’s volatility-adjusted framework, that compression implies Bitcoin’s market value would need to rise about 13%—translating to roughly $126,000 per coin—to align with the roughly $5 trillion private investment market in gold, leaving BTC “undervalued by around $16,000” This is the basis.

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It is crucial to frame the issue. JPMorgan is not saying Bitcoin should be as large as the entire gold complex—jewelry, central-bank reserves and industrial uses included—but rather that on a risk-adjusted basis, given how much less volatile BTC has become relative to bullion, Bitcoin’s capitalization can justify a higher level than where it trades today if one benchmarks against gold’s private-investment slice of the market. The headline takeaway—”Bitcoin undervalued vs. gold as volatility falls”—was amplified Walter Bloomberg, a market-moving analyst on X’s X channel, emphasized that valuation gaps are largely influenced by volatility and not just price.

Analysts at the bank, including Nikolaos Pantigirtzoglou attribute a part of volatility’s decline to a changing holder base, and reorganizing market structures. According to them, the accelerating accumulation is due to corporate treasuries—which they estimate now hold more than 6% of circulating supply—and to index-related dynamics that are drawing passive capital into equities tied to Bitcoin exposure, both of which dampen day-to-day swings. Their explanation of the cause-and effect is simple: A larger and more stable base. “sticky” holders lowers realized volatility, which in turn raises fair value on a volatility-normalized, gold-relative model.

Gold Parity and Beyond

Commentators in the industry also had a strong reaction to this claim. It’s just a question of time before Bitcoin is parity with gold“JPMorgan’s notes are not credible,” said Joe Consorti of Theya. “a big admission.”

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According to him, long-term success isn’t parity in a model that takes into account risk but absolute dominance. “At today’s market capitalization, Bitcoin would trade at $1.17 million per coin if it were equal to the size of gold.” He turns the experiment into a time line, arguing that parity will be achieved if Bitcoins and gold maintain a five-year growth rate. in the early 2030s.

“If Bitcoin and gold simply keep growing at their current five-year compound annual growth rates, parity arrives in late 2031. That would mean a $53 trillion market cap for Bitcoin and a price north of $2.5 million per coin. Even under more conservative assumptions, the convergence still happens in the early 2030s. Because it’s not just about Bitcoin’s growth, it’s also about gold losing market share,” The analyst makes a case.

JPMorgan admitted that the bitcoin price of $112k was undervalued when compared to gold.

Bitcoin is $1.17M today if the gold equivalent was used.

What will the price of bitcoin be when it reaches gold parity?

[B2YB @JoinHorizon_] pic.twitter.com/GvofTvKEef

— Joe Consorti ⚡️ (@JoeConsorti) August 28, 2025

These are Consorti projections and not JPMorgans. They illustrate the most maximalist conclusion of the relative-value logic.

BTC was trading at $111 061 as of the time this article went to press.

Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com