Bitcoins could drop as low as $105k if whales continue to sell

Takeaways from the conference:

• Bitcoin’s rapid rebound following Jackson Hole has waned to a weekly bearish engulfing candles.

• According to Onchain, the mid-sized wallets are selling at a rate of $105,000.

• Seasonal weakness and spot BTC ETF fatigue raise risks of a drop toward $100,000–$92,000.

BitcoinBTCAfter dovish remarks from the Jackson Hole conference, risk appetite was boosted.

BTC posted its highest daily gain since July 10 and this has fueled optimism about a new leg to all-time record highs. The momentum was quickly lost, as Bitcoin reversed over the weekend, and dropped to $106,600 on Monday.

The data from onchain indicates that there is a large distribution among the holders.

Glassnode Data shows all BTC wallet cohorts have now shifted into distribution, led by the 10–100 BTC group. This synchronized behaviour across wallet sizes highlights the uniform pressure from sell-side, which weighs on price stability.

Boris Vest is also an analyst notes a split across wallet behavior: smaller holders (0–1 BTC) have steadily accumulated since the peak, while 1–10 BTC wallets resumed buying below $107,000. By contrast, 10–100 BTC wallets flipped to net sellers after $118,000, while large holders above 1,000 BTC remain consistent distributors.

However, the 100–1,000 BTC group is split between accumulation and distribution around $105,000, marking it as the key support zone and the last stronghold before major corrections.

Bitcoin realized price data underscores The inflection is a good example. The realized price for one to three-month holders sits at $111,900, while the three to six-month and 6–12 month cohorts are anchored much lower at $91,630 and $89,200, respectively.

The large gap is a result of short-term holdings near recent highs as compared to long-term owners with cost bases around $90,000 or more.

The market suggests that, in the event Bitcoin falls below $105,000, there is a lack of cost support at current levels between $90,000. This could lead to accelerated downward momentum. Such a breakdown could force recent buyers to capitulate, leaving the $92,000–$89,000 range as the next major demand zone.

Related: Bitcoin late longs wiped out as sub-$110K BTC price calls grow louder

Seasonality of Bitcoin and ETF fatigue set in

Bitcoin has seasonal trends, and the current decline is in line with those. Historically, the period between August and September is a time of relative weakness. This has been amplified in many cases by Asia. “ghost month,” The festival is held this year between August 23 and September 21. Cointelegraph reported It is no coincidence that the period of lower risk-taking and profits has coincided often with this.

Since 2017, Bitcoin has posted an average ghost month decline of 21.7%, with notable drops of –39.8% in 2017 and –23% in 2021. Based on these averages, a retreat toward the $105,000–$100,000 range remains consistent with seasonal patterns and technical support zones.

Roman Trading, a crypto trader who is also cautious, adds to this tone. flags BTC’s recent rally is characterized by structural risks. Analyst said BTC/EUR had not reached a new high level since last year. This suggests that the recent rise is closely linked to a falling US dollar rather than organic demand.

Roman also warns the enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin ETFs following their launch may be diminishing, as higher-timeframe exhaustion is similar to previous distribution phases.

Related: Bitcoin OG whales to blame for BTC’s painful rise: Willy Woo

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.