Can ETH break $4,5K and invalidate daily bearish divergence?

The key takeaways

• Volume of Ether permanent futures is now higher than Bitcoin.

• The divergence between the RSI and the RSI is bearish, indicating short-term fatigue.

EtherETHSince December 2025,, has been trading just below $4,000 and traders do not know if it will ever be broken. Despite the difficulty in overcoming $4,000, one key target for bulls lies at the +1σ active realized price band, currently hovering near $4,500. This metric measures the cost of ETH that is actively traded on the blockchain.

Glassnode data indicated that this level acted as a ceiling during the March 2024 high and the 2020–21 cycle. The previous breakout of this line, which was sustained above it for a period of time, has triggered rapid momentum upwards. However, there is also the danger that overheating will occur and structural volatility.

The future markets of ETH are also reflecting the current momentum. Cointelegraph reported Ether’s perpetual futures are now the dominant volume player in the market for the first since 2022. “largest” You can find the biggest ever shift in focus of traders towards ETH. Byzantine General has also recently revised the outlook of his pseudonymous trading account. stating,

“I think I’m wrong about ETH getting some short-term downside. It’s too strong, refuses to print any significant correction… It’s looking like a just f***ing send it moment.”

Ether’s maps of liquidations support this story by revealing a clustering of liquidations just over $4,000. If you move cleanly above the threshold, it could be as much as 930 million dollars in liquidated positions. It may also fuel a move vertical toward $4,500.

Related: Here’s why some Ethereum traders expect ETH price to hit $16K this cycle

Bearish divergences are a warning for short-term caution.

Despite the fact that bullish sentiment dominates, there is a technical sign which could derail current rallies. Ether’s price reached new local highs in both four-hour- and one-day-timeframes. But the relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to confirm this move. This led to bearish divergences.

Similar to patterns seen in past local tops, bearish divergences may be an indication of buyer fatigue. Zooming in, you can see a bearish divergence on the daily chart that is still present since ETH has crossed over $3,500. Price cannot be excluded from a brief pullback towards support levels if it fails to move past $4,000 on convincing volume.

The immediate support area on the lower timeframe remains below $3700 where an narrow fair value gaps (FVGs) can be observed.

Ether could test its FVG on a long-term basis between $3,200 to $3,300 if persistent bearish pressure persists, resulting in a break down of the structure.

Related: ‘Largest’ volume skew for ETH confirms pivot to altcoins: Glassnode

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.