Missiles Fly, Yet Bitcoin Holds

Michael Tabone is Senior Economist for Cointelegraph.

This Saturday, 21 June 2025, there will be a public holiday. US hit Iranian nuclear facilitiesBitcoin’s price dropped for a brief period of time (BTC). Bitcoin recovered before Sunday’s close, to a little under 1,27% of the price it was before US military efforts.

For 10 days in June, missiles flew and markets wobbled, but Bitcoin held its ground — not immune to war, but more stable than fear would suggest.

Human nature is to look for patterns. However, correlation doesn’t always mean cause. When you read the headlines it’s easy to believe that something is changing because one story led to another. Israel strikes Iran. Iran responds. The United States releases 30,000-pound bunkerbusters. Bitcoin has dropped to $98,286, but headlines are screaming about correlation. 

However, if we look closely, it is clear that the withdrawal was ordered. No panic. No panic. Bitcoin was still trading above the six-figure mark at the end of the week, and that’s when the dust settled. A military uprising in the Middle East that was the worst in many years only moved the Bitcoin asset by 1.27% over 24 hours. It isn’t a crisis. This is just a market that takes news as it does the weather.

The effect that global headlines have on Bitcoin price can provide a way for traders, hodlers, and newcomers to the cryptoverse to sort out the signals from the noise and determine what is driving the market both in the short- and long-term.

Conflict, charts and causality trap

The recent Middle East conflict has affected the price of Bitcoin. Peter Schiff, the anti-Bitcoin gold bug. asked on X On Sunday “Other than [Michael Saylor], who’s buying the dip below $100K?” The market responded positively to BTC dropping to nearly $98K. This was sufficient to push the price back up to that six-figure psychological mark. 

BTC, as well as its USD price, fluctuate constantly. It is within this range where we find the greatest insight. Looking at BTC’s highs and lowers from 12 June through to Sunday, it is clear that the price of Bitcoin closed higher than the lows. This shows that the price of Bitcoin has been supported at this level even though there had been a downward trend for several days. 

It makes sense to expect a downward trend when you consider that 200-day moving average BTC costs around $95,567. The 200 DMA can be a good long-term indicator of trend. It provides support or resistance for the market if prices drop dramatically in the short run. 

Related: Bitcoin price risks sub-$100K dive after Trump confirms Iran strikes

Bitcoins do show movement when there are political tensions. Bitcoin is often still found. stability rather quicklyIn the longer term, it is possible that other headlines will have an even greater effect on BTC’s price volatility. 

Macro is still holding the wheel

Looking back at the beginning of 2025 to see what headlines moved the cryptocurrency market medium-termWe can see that macro-news headlines in the United States show a greater correlation than recent conflict between Israel and Iran. A major BTC spike was caused by the swearing in ceremony of US president Donald Trump. Jan. 20The price of bitcoins dropped in the following days without any official announcement from the crypto-industry.  

On February 12, Consumer Price Indexes (CPIs) increased by 3.0%, and Core CPIs rose to 3.3%. These increases reinforced the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate pause. On February 12, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.0% and core CPI to 3.3%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s rate pause. March 19The Fed reduced its forecast for GDP to 1,7% and increased its projections of unemployment to 4,4%. It also raised expectations on inflation. The Fed’s inflation expectations were also raised. April 4Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chairperson, warned against new tariffs that could increase inflation and slow down growth. On April 10CPI dropped to 2,3% and sparked hopes for rate reductions. On May 13The CPI was unchanged at 2,3% but the core inflation rate stayed at 2.8%. On May 30In the conflict between Israel and Iran, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) decreased to just 2.1%. Core PCE fell to only 2.5%. During the Iran–Israel conflict, on June 11CPI was 2.4%. on June 12The Producer Price Index was printed at 0.2%.

On Tuesday and WednesdayThe Federal Open Market Committee held the interest rate steady, but reduced the GDP projection to 1,4%. They also raised the inflation forecasts to 3%. A flurry or macro data has moved Bitcoin in the last six months, more so than a missile launch.

The peak of 108 915 dollars on June 16 coincided with BlackRock reporting 412 million dollars in ETF inflows, Capital rotation was not the conflict premium.

Bitcoin tends to perform well historically in major geopolitical issues

Bitcoin prices have historically risen in times of political turmoil. During major events like the US–Iran tensions in 2020, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and now the Iran–Israel conflict of 2025, Bitcoin has shown upward movement or remarkable price stability. It is not a safe-haven in the traditional sense, but it can act as if it were.

BlackRock’s 2024 report reinforced this, showing that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 and gold during several past geopolitical shocks. This chart illustrates Bitcoin’s peculiar behavior during crisis situations: While stocks dropped and gold oscillated in price, Bitcoin was often on an upward trend. This pattern continued in June 2025. The trend did not change, and neither did it surge. 

This is important in a desperate world for assets who don’t just follow the crowd.

No, I am not immune to war but neither is it a threat.

Bitcoin did not react to ideologies when it moved in the last conflict between Iran and Israel. This was a reaction to flow and liquidation. This is different. The traders sold in uncertainty. 

Some others bought the dip. Demand for ETFs continues. The ETF demand continued.

Bitcoin was put to the test by recent headlines on the Iran-Israel conflict. The real-world test did not lead to a breakdown in technology or institutional flight. That isn’t bullish from a hyped perspective; that’s in a structural context.

Assets did not blink when briefly the world tilted towards catastrophe. But this tilt is still far from being over. Black swan Investors can benefit from positive events that affect any asset class. It is difficult to determine if a news event will have a short-term, medium-term or long lasting effect. 

Michael Tabone Senior economist at Cointelegraph.

The article does not provide legal advice or investment recommendations and it is intended only for informational purposes. These are solely the opinions, views, and thoughts of the author and may not reflect the opinions and views of Cointelegraph.