Bitcoin traders’ sentiment changes point to BTC’s next halving.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycleIt is well known that the halving of BTC prices, which occurs every year, has been a major factor for BTC price increases. Within this framework, traders expect three distinct phases: accumulations, parabolic rallies, then crashes.

In addition to the longer-term cycles, there are also shorter-term cycles that emerge over the period of four years. These cycles are usually driven by the changing market sentiments and behaviors of both long-term and temporary holders. The psychological patterns of participants in the market can help predict Bitcoin’s future moves.

As markets fall, Bitcoin whales are eating.

Long-term Bitcoin holders — those holding for three to five years — are often considered the most seasoned participants. They are usually wealthier, more experienced and can weather prolonged bear markets. 

Recent studies have shown that data Glassnode long-term investors distributed more than 2 million BTC during this cycle in two waves. After each wave, there was a large reaccumulation which helped reduce the pressure from sellers and stabilized prices. Long-term Bitcoin owners are currently in a new period of accumulation. The wealth of this group has increased dramatically by over 363,000 BTC.

Another cohort of Bitcoin holders often seen as more seasoned than the average market participant are whales—addresses holding over 1,000 BTC. Most of these long-term Bitcoin holders are included in this group. Mega-whales are those who hold more than 10,000 BTC. According to, currently, there are around 93 addresses that fall into this category. BitInfoChartsRecent activity indicates that they are continuing to accumulate.

Glassnode Data shows that in April of this year, large whales reached an accumulation score of 1.0. This indicates intense purchases over a period 15 days. Since then, the score has dipped to 0.65, but it still represents consistent accumulation. These large holders appear to be buying from smaller cohorts—specifically wallets with less than 1 BTC and those with under 100 BTC—whose accumulation scores have dipped toward 0.1–0.2. 

The divergence indicates a growing supply from retailers to larger holders, and hints at future support for prices (whales are known to be long-term investors). It can also be a precursor to bullish markets.

In August 2024 when Bitcoin traded at around $60,000. BTC soared from $60,000 to $108,000 two months later.

The market’s sentiment is a major factor in determining the short-term holdings of investors

Holders of BTC who are short-term, defined by most as holding it for between 3 and 6 months, act differently. These holders are more likely to sell during periods of correction or uncertainty. 

The pattern of this behavior is also predictable. Glassnode shows data that indicates spending tends to go up and down approximately every 8-12 months. 

The short-term holders are currently spending at an historically low level despite the volatile macroeconomic environment. So far, this suggests that newer Bitcoin investors are choosing not to panic sell but rather hold. Short-term Bitcoin holders could be the ones to panic sell if Bitcoin’s price falls further.

People drive markets. Emotions like fear, greed, denial, and euphoria don’t just influence individual decisions — they shape entire market moves. It’s why you see the same pattern: Bubbles expand as greed increases, before collapsing under the pressure of panic. 

CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index This rhythm is well illustrated. This indicator, which is a composite of multiple market indicators, cycles from neutral to greed to fear every 3 to 4 months.

The market has been in fear since February. This is exacerbated by the US trade war with China and the fall in stock prices around the world. The human mind is always cyclical. This could mean that the stock market returns to its previous levels. “neutral” Feelings within the next 3 to 6 months.

Market cycles can be self-fulfilling. If enough people start to believe in the pattern, then they begin acting upon it. They take profits when expected peaks are reached and buy dips during expected bottoms. The collective behaviour reinforces and prolongs the pattern.

Bitcoin is one of the best examples. Its cycles may not run on precise schedules, but they rhyme consistently enough to shape expectations — and, in turn, influence reality.

The information in this article is neither investment advice nor a recommendation. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.