33% Chance Bitcoin Already Topped—Brace For $52,000

Bob Loukas, a veteran crypto analyst, has cut his Bitcoin exposure. He warns that, while the bull-cycle remains intact, it is likely that Bitcoin’s peak has been reached for the four-year cycle. In a recent update published Loukas discussed the reasons for selling a third his model portfolio, at $79500. Loukas cited both a worsening economic backdrop and technical degradation.

“I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle,” Loukas said. He did, however, emphasize that the recent price movement and structural breakdowns on charts required a more conservative approach. I’m not advocating that this be the only way to trade. top in the cycle” He clarified. “but I’m saying that the probability of it being a top has increased… from that low risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a third—you know, a 33% chance.”

Bitcoin Bulls in Doubt

Portfolio shifts, which bring the model’s Bitcoin allocation to only 27 BTC and the remaining in cash are not an announcement of imminent collapse, but instead a safeguard against increasing downside risks. Loukas clarified that the decision was not impulsive or reactive but instead aligned with an established strategy informed by Bitcoin’s historical price cyclicality. In his video from February, he said that the failure of the weekly cycle to maintain support or to take out recent lows would indicate deeper problems. “In the third year of a bull market, you don’t want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February… and then to be taken out. It doesn’t happen often.”

Read Related Articles

Loukas cited a number of trendline breaks and support break critical on weekly and monthly charts. Technical breaks, while not reliable in isolation, are still important. predictors of cycle topsHe argued that they lend weight to his thesis, which is the possibility of a market transition into the decline phase of a four-year cycle. “We are now… 29 months into the cycle,” He said “so it’s deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously.”

Although the analyst remains bullish long-term—highlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoption—he warned that macroeconomic headwinds The short-term fallout could be accelerated. “There’s a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy,” Loukas noted. “We haven’t seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades… that could potentially… become a full-blown global recession.”

Loukas believes that in such a scenario the notion of Bitcoin being completely decoupled from risk assets is unrealistic. “ETFs are relatively new. Saylor and others—the institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoin—leads me to believe that a full decoupling… is probably unrealistic.”

The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 level—a roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. Loukas said that while this was not a prediction, but an alternative scenario, such a movement could be a great opportunity to re-enter the market. “If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough… where I would want to redeploy some risk.”

Read Related Articles

In his opinion, he said that any major rally, followed by an even lower low, would indicate a top in the four-year cycle. “A big move up and then a subsequent move down… is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin.”

Loukas isn’t ruling out a return to higher levels later this year. He suggested that an unusual outcome could be possible. “super right-translated cycle,” in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 window—perhaps around month 41 or 42—followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. The more speculative scenario involves a double- or triple pump structure that echoes the cycle patterns of 2013 and 2021.

Loukas said that the portfolio model is still two thirds Bitcoin. He would rather have a bullish result, even if it meant reducing exposure. “I’d much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, ‘Well, Bitcoin’s back down to $48K or lower.'”

Loukas’s final explanation of the decision was not a bearish surrender but prudent risk management. “I am essentially an allocator of risk and capital… and as you get deeper and deeper into the cycle, the higher you go, the risk/reward of course changes.”

BTC is currently trading for $77,743.

Featured image was created with DALL.E chart by TradingView.com