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Bitcoin is down by more than -22% compared to its highest point. The daily timeframe shows a number of lower highs. On X, while the monthly and weekly timeframes are bullish the call for the Bitcoin bear-market is becoming louder. Two prominent analysts have weighed in on what they believe could be the deciding factor for an extended rally—or a deeper downturn.
Bitcoin Bull Run in Jeopardy
Charting Guy, a cryptocurrency analyst, tweets as @ChartingGuy. shared A chart which places a strong emphasis on $95,000 as the price for Bitcoin. “yes i will flip back to fully bullish […] for that to happen BTC needs to reclaim and hold $95k, which he has stated many times […] it’s the level that was prior support for majority of February, then we rejected from it hard on March 2nd and turned it to resistance […] now, with $76.7k on March 11th being the very likely local low, we pull a fib and $95k just happens to perfectly be the 0.618 fib. you cannot make this up.”
According to his analysis, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement—often called the “golden pocket“—looms large as a definitive test of bullish strength. Charting Guy warns that if this area is not broken above, it could result in an extended period of bearishness.
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He further explained that Bitcoin (BTC) and equities, such as the S&P 500 (SPY), must navigate their respective golden pockets before any real, sustained rally can begin: “if crypto and stocks can’t reclaim the golden pocket and flip it to support, and end up rejecting there instead, then i am bearish on BTC & stocks for a while.”
Charting Guy does see potential for an April-June bull run: “April – June shall be bullish af imo […] BUT that extension into June is only if May is strong and not a sell in May and go away type of month […] what will determine that? how BTC & SPY both react at their respective golden pockets when they get there on this April relief rally.”
Charting Guy claims that, if the technical obstacles prove to be insurmountable and he is forced out of his current positions. “if this purely is just a relief rally and the charts look toppy again when we’re back at these levels late April/early May, then i will be OUT of this market.”
A second crypto analyst @wauwda has taken a slightly more conservative approach. stance, noting several bearish signals for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500: “Every indicator is getting bearish on the HTF for BTC & SPX: Bearish Stochastic RSI cross, Bearish MACD cross, Bearish divergence RSI, MSTR lower high, Altcoins higher high … Ultimate Bull Trap.”
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While Wauwda anticipates a relief rally—citing the potential for a bounce due to extreme bearish sentiment—he points out parallels with 2021. The list includes high-profile celebrities, large-scale events, and other factors that Wauwda believes indicate a general euphoria in the market. corporate playsAnd meme-driven hype
“‘We didn’t have euphoria yet’ … Are you sure? Founder Tron buys banana for $6.2M and eats it, Coinbase gives free bitcoin to every person at the warriors game, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Teens are getting crypto courses on school, People are flexing on yachts, Doge is worth more than General Motors, Bank of New York Melon, Peter Schiff created his own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This is just a tiny part of what I wrote down.”
Wauwda acknowledges that the euphoria of this cycle might be different than previous cycles, but he notes that warning signs similar to those that appeared before 2021’s market peak were also present. ETH/BTC, Bitcoin Dominance and Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTCD), he says, are also factors worth watching, even though they have oscillating, volatile patterns instead of a clear pattern. “The thing I’m struggling with though right now is ETHBTC and BTCD since they both have been up and down only, but maybe that will change with the next leg up.”
BTC was trading at $84,206 as of the time this article went to press.
Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
