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The community is divided in its opinion of X. In the debate about the market’s trajectory for Bitcoin, two leading crypto analysts shared contrasting opinions on the subject. While one maintains that a drastic downturn remains possible, the other posits that the worst of the market downturn has already passed—citing a notable 87.5% probability.
The Bitcoin Bears in Trouble
Dr. Profit is a crypto analyst (@DrProfitCrypto). posted Bitcoin has two possible paths. “There are two scenarios: A) Bottom to be 68-74k region in normal market, B) Full crash towards 50k in Black Swan event.”
He did not provide a specific probability for either outcome but emphasized that a Black Swan event—a term used to describe a rare, unexpected event that can drastically impact markets—cannot be ruled out. He acknowledged that such a downturn had been previously unthinkable, but that the recent changes in macro-economics may have opened up room to it.”Take your bets, I would say that a Black Swan event was very unlikely in the last few months, but ask me now, I would not rule it out, rather welcome it.”
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The crypto analyst (@astronomer_zero), on the other hand, responded more positively, saying that it is too late to turn around. He cited the history of Bitcoin’s price reverses around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetingsThe claim is that the product works “14 out of 16 times,” About 87.5% or so of the time. “Not guarantees, but an 87.5% chance, granted the chart below and all the confluences I already presented. So far so good.”
The method relies on the fact that market participants often anticipate interest rate announcements (and other news) prior to official ones. Astronomer’s method claims that Bitcoin usually finds its local bottoms within a five-day window. “2D bars” Before an FOMC meeting date, to the actual day of the FOMC.
“All it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day,” The analyst writes.
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He points out that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, meaning the bottom—if the historical pattern holds—should appear no later than that date: “Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time)… The time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March.”
Astronomer uses what he believes to be evidence in support of his arguments. “peaking fear” The market is deteriorating. He believes that the current market is characterized by increased negativity. “cautionary posts out of nowhere” The signals from traders who are well-established as typical indicators that the a rebound could be imminent: “Sentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even ‘Reputable’ traders are protecting their reputation […] I don’t blame anyone’s methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom.”
BTC is currently trading for $83,277.
Featured image was created using DALL.E chart by TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
