Bitcoin’s market will experience significant volatility in the United States as it approaches the presidential election scheduled for Tuesday, 5 November 2024. Bitcoin reached a record high of $73,620 in the days leading up to Tuesday’s presidential election. This was likely due to investor optimism about a possible victory by former president Donald Trump. The BTC price corrected on Friday to $68,830 as the election approached.
What To Do With Bitcoins During US Elections
Alex Krüger, an Argentine economist and renowned crypto analyst, shared His strategic framework for trading Bitcoin in the US during election time via his X Account. Krüger outlined scenarios based on possible election outcomes, highlighting that a Trump victory could propel Bitcoin to $90,000 by year-end with a 55% probability, while a win for Vice President Kamala Harris might see Bitcoin settle around $65,000 with a 45% probability. He stressed the importance of timing: “Expect the move to be fast if Trump wins. Markets rarely waits for laggards on binary events not largely front-run.”
Krüger also noted that the current Bitcoin price, which he anticipated to be in the $65k-68k range leading up to election night, had “overshot” Aligning with the probability of a Trump victory. He highlighted the uncertainties surrounding the results of the elections, especially the Pennsylvania count that could cause a delay in the declaration of the winner.
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“It largely depends on the Pennsylvania count, if it is lopsided or not. It could be as early as Tuesday evening EST, or days later if the count is very tight. The sooner we get clarity, the easier it gets,” Krüger stated.
Regarding market sentiment, Krüger expressed a bullish outlook on equities regardless of the election outcome, unless there is an unexpected “Blue sweep” Where Democrats win both the Senate and presidential majorities. He explained this. “equities drag Bitcoin around.”
In his personal investment strategy, Krüger revealed that he is positioned with long spots in Bitcoin and Nvidia, and plans to go long on Solana (SOL) if Trump wins. With this, Krüger is likely betting on a spot Solana Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Approval in the United States
Krüger’s analysis suggests that the market has partially priced in a Trump victory, anticipating that a Trump administration could bolster the Bitcoin price. “Markets have partially priced a Trump victory in. We (the market, in aggregate) expect Trump to drive crypto prices higher due to increased regulatory clarity and implementation of pro-crypto policies,” The analyst wrote.
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Additionally, he expects that Trump’s focus on increased government spending would stimulate short-term economic growth, positively impacting equities—a sector closely linked to Bitcoin’s performance.
In the opposite direction, Harris victory It is likely that the current policies would continue, barring an important Democratic victory. Krüger concluded: “Based on betting markets and various election forecasting models, Trump’s probabilities are in the 50% to 63% range. Ergo, it’s “You can also find out more about the safety of this product.” to assume a GOP victory is far from being fully priced in. Such a contested setup is common going into elections. That is why I do not expect ‘sell the news’.”
BTC is currently trading for $70,402.
Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
