There are some patterns that you should note.
Michael van de Poppe, an analyst at Van de Poppe & Co. Inc. has predicted a repeating of the COVID style reshuffle among assets with high market capitalization. Essentially, the cycles tend to have a rotational flow into alternate assets.
In order to put it in perspective, this projection was based off the previous cycle where the ETH/BTC rate hit a bottom of 0.02, and then soared 300%+ before the start of Q4 2021.
The question that arises is: Can Ethereum [ETH] Can you pull it off again?
Looking at the technicalsThe ratio bounces off of the same floor (0,02).
This chart illustrates that since Q2 of 2025 the ratio is increasing vertically by 75%. It is similar to Ethereum’s 82% increase in price, which was $3.4k compared to Bitcoin’s [BTC] Gain of 15% over the same time period
In summary, ETH’s weakening in 2025 compared to BTC resulted from a 38% drop in the ETH/BTC during Q1, then bouncing right back. This could be a confirmation of a bottom. Then we may be seeing the beginnings of an uptrend.
Ethereum L1’s in the spotlight
Expecting a COVID style rally would be an overreach.
This logic is straightforward: since the COVID-19 rally the market has changed significantly. BTC now dominates both the spot market and the speculative market, with a market capitalization of $2.5 trillion by early Q4 in 2025.
Ethereum appears to be on the right track, displaying strength across all key metrics. Consider, for instance. Ondo Finance While Ethereum TPS reached a recent record of 58k, the RWA TVL now accounts for 11%.
Source: Growthpie.com
The strength of the current run is still evident.
Ethereum is starting to catch up with Bitcoin. For instance, ETH’s market share The market has increased by 60%+ from a low of 8% in Q2 2020, which further supports this thesis.
What’s the main difference? The key difference? fundamentally driven.
This gives Ethereum an edge in the macro-context of today. In the coming months, as new regulations come into place, the L1s should be in the lead to take advantage of momentum.
Conclusions
- Ethereum’s market share is on the rise, as the ETH/BTC has increased by 75 percent since Q2 of 2025. This was largely due to the strong developer activity.
- As regulations become clearer, L1s may be able to lead market momentum. ETH’s dominance could signal a pre-COVID style breakout.
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Source: ambcrypto.com
