$16.5B in Bitcoin options expire on Friday — Will BTC price soar above $90K?

BitcoinBTCInvestors prepare for the historic expiration of $16.5 billion in monthly options on March 28. But the impact of this drop is not expected to be as great, because BTC dropped below $90,000. This caught many investors by surprise and invalidated a lot bullish position. 

The shift in Bitcoin’s price gives Bitcoin Bears the chance to avoid a possible $3 billion loss. This could have a significant impact on market dynamics over the next few weeks.

The total interest in call options (buying) is currently $10.5 billion. Put options (selling) are at $6 billion. Seven,6 billion dollars of these call options are priced at or above $92,000, which means Bitcoin needs to gain 6.4% from the current price in order for them to be viable before March 28. The advantage of bullish bets is now significantly reduced.

The Bitcoin bulls are praying for an a “decoupling” QE can restart if it wants to 

Bitcoins’ poor performance has been attributed by some analysts to US Tariffs, global tariffs and ongoing US tariff war. government spending cutsWhich increases the risk of economic recession. Traders worry about slower growth, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, which had driven the S&P 500 to a record high on Feb. 19 before falling 7%.

Bitcoin bulls continue to be optimistic about a possible decoupling of Bitcoin from the stock exchange, despite the fact that since March, the 40-day correlative has remained above 70%. The optimism is a result of central bank expansions and increased Bitcoin adoption Companies such as GameStop, Rumble, Metaplanet and Semler Scientific are all part of the GameStop family (GME), Rumble is a subsidiary of Rumble.

Both bulls and traders have an incentive to impact Bitcoin’s price when the option expiry date approaches. Bullish investors may aim to reach levels over $92,000 but their optimistic outlook alone will not be enough for BTC to surpass this level. Deribit has the largest share in the option market, with 74%. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is second at 8.5%. Binance comes third at 8%.

Bitcoin bulls have a significant advantage in the market going into the expiry of the monthly option contracts. In the case that Bitcoin remains above $86,500 at 8:00 AM UTC, on March 28th, then only $2 Billion worth of sell (put) options are in play. Bears will be motivated to lower Bitcoin to below $84,000. If they succeed, the active value of all put options would rise to $2.6billion.

Related: Would GameStop buying Bitcoin help BTC price hit $200K?

The Bitcoin bulls are in the lead if BTC passes $90.000

Here are five possible scenarios, based on the current trends in prices. This outcome estimates theoretical profits using open interest imbalances. However, it excludes complex strategies like selling put options for upside price exposure.

• The range between $81,000 and $85k: $2.7 Billion in call instruments (buying) vs. $2,6 billion in put instruments (selling). Call instruments are $100 million better off.

• The range between $85,000 and $88,000 is: The calls are $1.3bn more expensive than the puts.

• From $88,000 to $90,000. The difference between $1.8 and $3.4 billion is $3.4 billion. Calls are $1.6 billion more favorable.

• The range between $90k and $92,000 is: Calls are worth $4.4 billion compared to puts of $1.4 billion, a $3 billion difference.

To minimize losses, bears must push Bitcoin below $84,000—a 3% drop—before the March 28 expiry. This would strengthen their position by increasing the value of sell (put) options. 

In contrast, the bulls may maximize their gains if they can drive BTC to $90,000. That could generate enough momentum in April for bullish trends, especially if there are significant flows into Bitcoin spot. exchange-traded funds The (ETFs), resume their strong pace.

This is not intended as a legal or investment advisory. These are solely the opinions, views and thoughts of the author and may not reflect the opinions and views of Cointelegraph.