Close Menu
ADVERTISE

The expiration of the $14B monthly Bitcoin options puts a cap on BTC price

Bitcoin By
The Silent Bitcoin Accumulation: Companies' Surprising 2025 Lead
The Silent Bitcoin Accumulation: Companies' Surprising 2025 Lead

The key takeaways

  • As most of the call (buying) strikes are over $91,000 and increasing pressure on bulls, Friday’s expiry for BTC options worth $14 billion is a neutral to bearish event.

  • Bitcoin traders have added call options for the year end near $100,000 despite recent losss, showing that bullish expectation persists.

BitcoinBTC( price) dropped on Tuesday, after it failed to maintain the $89,000 level achieved the previous day. The traders are worried that the expiration of BTC’s 14 billion BTC option on Friday could reinforce the bearish mood following weaker data in private employment and lower consumer confidence.

BTC Open Interest for Nov. 28, BTC aggregate BTC Call (Buy) Options. Source: laevitas.ch

Open interest for BTC calls (buying) is currently 104 300 BTC at current price, which amounts to $9.12 Billion. The recent decline of 23% in Bitcoin within 30 days surprised bulls, since 84% were above $91,000. The contracts expire worthless, if spot prices remain at current levels.

BTC interest rates for Nov. 28, aggregate BTC sell (put) options. Source: laevitas.ch

Sell (put) options open interest The total is 67.877 BTC (5.92 billion). Put positions are 35% less than open call interest but appear to be more in line with current market conditions. 31% of them have a price below $84,500. Even if Bitcoin was to recover some of its recent losses before Nov. 28th, probabilities would still favor neutral or bearish outcomes.

The risk sentiment worsened after ADP, a payroll processor in the US, reported that private US companies had shed 13,500 jobs on average per week over the last four weeks. The weak labor market is a challenge to a consumer economy.

After the US Conference Board announced that consumer sentiment fell from 95.5 to 88.7, investors’ mood sank further. The expectations for business and income also fell, falling below the neutral threshold of 80% for the 10th consecutive month. according Yahoo Finance

The Fed’s intervention is more likely to be sought after if economic indicators are weak

While deteriorating indicators may weigh on investors’ expectations, it also increases the probability that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more restrictive monetary policy. The Russell 2000 index of small companies gained 1.9% and gold increased by 1.2% as traders awaited additional liquidity measures Treasury Department to assist in stabilizing the economy.

Donald Trump, the US president, signed a bill on Monday. “Genesis Mission” The executive order was issued to speed up artificial intelligence research and development, and minimize perceived risks associated with energy shortages. It also aims at mitigating long-term financial needs. Large-scale high-performance computer facilities may strain the credit market.

Bitcoin open interest changes past 48 hours on Deribit USD. Source: Laevitas.ch

Bitcoin traders increased their call options positions for the year end in the range of $100,000 to $112,000 during the last 48-hours, indicating that the price decline is not affecting the long-term outlook.

Related: Bitcoin short-squeeze to $90K possible as funding rates turn negative

Bitcoins’ momentum will be determined at $89,000.

Here are five possible scenarios for November BTC option expiry, based on the current price trend:

  • The range between $85,000 and $87,000 is: This net result is $1.9 Billion in favour of put instruments (sale).

  • The range between $87,001 and 88,000 is: This net result is $800,000,000 in favour of put instruments (sell).

  • The range between $88,001 and $99,000 is: Call and Put Options are balanced.

  • From $89,001 to $90,000. Net result: $600 Million in favor of the instruments that call for (buy).

  • The range between $90,001 and 92,000 is: Net result: $3.8 billion in favor of the buy (call) instruments.

Bullish BTC option strategies may not be dismissed outright. Investors are still closely tied to expectations and macroeconomic conditions. potential stimulus efforts By central banks throughout the world.

The article does not provide legal advice or investment recommendations and it is intended for informational purposes only. These are solely the opinions, views, and thoughts of the author and may not reflect the opinions and views of Cointelegraph.