Timothy Peterson says that Bitcoin’s chances of reaching $140,000 in the next month are 50%. He published that probability on X, and backed up his claim with simulations that use a decade’s worth of price movements to predict likely outcomes.
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Simulation Based on Historical Data
Peterson claims that the model performs hundreds of simulations daily. Bitcoin Price comparisons going back as far as 2015. On the basis of those moves, he estimated that Bitcoin would finish the month over $140,000 by 50%.
Also, 43% of the time the price would end the month under $136k. Bitcoin traded at $121,200 when he made his speech. This means that a gain of approximately 11% is needed from current levels to reach $140,000.
This AI simulation suggests that half of Bitcoin’s gains in October could have been achieved already.
Bitcoin has a 50% probability of finishing the month at or above $140k
Bitcoin has a 43 percent chance of finishing below $136,000. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
Bitcoin hit a record high on Monday of $126.200, but then it dropped. It began October At approximately $116,500 the month already has produced gains.
Data shows that October is the second best month in average, with gains of around 20%. The reports have revealed that historically November has been the most successful month, with gains averaging around 46%.
No Emotion
Peterson’s forecast is driven by numbers, not human emotions. Peterson said that each forecast follows the price movements of Bitcoin, which he compares to its past volatility.
This approach is designed to eliminate bias in short-term feelings. Historical simulations have their limits.
Bitcoin prices have sometimes changed in ways that do not correspond to historical patterns. Prices can be affected by market reactions, government policy, or other factors.
Market sentiment remains bullish
Social media platforms were flooded with analysts who urged the market to remain optimistic after its recent high. Another analyst stated that the market could be moving higher as it was testing previous highs.
One person said that the market was under increasing pressure to continue its gains. These are the views that traders and fund managers use to make their forecasts.
Bitcoin has become the new benchmark rate.
You have to purchase it if you cannot beat it.
This is what I have explained. @SquawkCNBC This morning, we’ll explain why many investors don’t get the return they expect. pic.twitter.com/re98rjCDua
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 7, 2025
Macro notes from a Prominent investor
Anthony Pompliano also made comments on CNBC, arguing that Bitcoin’s rally could continue as long as governments and central bankers keep printing money.
Anthony Pompliano told CNBC that Bitcoin would never cease to rise.
“They will never stop printing money.” pic.twitter.com/qeWJnTsIb3
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 7, 2025
He believes that monetary policy is linked to Bitcoin demand. This view is shared by many supporters of the cryptocurrency, who consider it a form of hedge.
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Chart from TradingView, Featured Image from Verdict
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
